Notes on the impending lack of Outside Context ugly ducklings, and why the Technological Singularity is not a Black Swan Event.
"The usual example given to illustrate an Outside Context Problem was imagining you were a tribe on a largish, fertile island; you'd tamed the land, invented the wheel or writing or whatever, the neighbors were cooperative or enslaved but at any rate peaceful and you were busy raising temples to yourself with all the excess productive capacity you had, you were in a position of near-absolute power and control which your hallowed ancestors could hardly have dreamed of and the whole situation was just running along nicely like a canoe on wet grass... when suddenly this bristling lump of iron appears sailless and trailing steam in the bay and these guys carrying long funny-looking sticks come ashore and announce you've just been discovered, you're all subjects of the Emperor now, he's keen on presents called tax and these bright-eyed holy men would like a word with your priests." Iain M. Banks, on Excession
Despite all best attempts, we see the future but through a glass, darkly. There a many reasons for this, chaos theory being one, cognitive biases being yet another. One of the larger contributions to our cataracted crystal ball of the undiscovered country may well be Ray Kurtweil's Law of Accelerated Returns. To the uninitiated, Ray Kurzweil is a Futurist, or, more specifically, he's Google's Chief Futurist, as well as being the goalpost-moving head Singularity proponent of the age. His pet creation, the Law of Accelerated Returns basically suggests exponential growth of technology as time continues, not a linear one. Humans tend to see things like this due to our linear experience of time, hence our warped perceptions of future events. It also doesn't help that our lifespans are limited, thus diminishing our scope for development.
This will be a living page, or at least that's my intention: I plan on expanding on this idea until I can clarify this thought in it's entirety. If you have any thoughts or ideas to contribute, please get in touch!
"The usual example given to illustrate an Outside Context Problem was imagining you were a tribe on a largish, fertile island; you'd tamed the land, invented the wheel or writing or whatever, the neighbors were cooperative or enslaved but at any rate peaceful and you were busy raising temples to yourself with all the excess productive capacity you had, you were in a position of near-absolute power and control which your hallowed ancestors could hardly have dreamed of and the whole situation was just running along nicely like a canoe on wet grass... when suddenly this bristling lump of iron appears sailless and trailing steam in the bay and these guys carrying long funny-looking sticks come ashore and announce you've just been discovered, you're all subjects of the Emperor now, he's keen on presents called tax and these bright-eyed holy men would like a word with your priests." Iain M. Banks, on Excession
Despite all best attempts, we see the future but through a glass, darkly. There a many reasons for this, chaos theory being one, cognitive biases being yet another. One of the larger contributions to our cataracted crystal ball of the undiscovered country may well be Ray Kurtweil's Law of Accelerated Returns. To the uninitiated, Ray Kurzweil is a Futurist, or, more specifically, he's Google's Chief Futurist, as well as being the goalpost-moving head Singularity proponent of the age. His pet creation, the Law of Accelerated Returns basically suggests exponential growth of technology as time continues, not a linear one. Humans tend to see things like this due to our linear experience of time, hence our warped perceptions of future events. It also doesn't help that our lifespans are limited, thus diminishing our scope for development.
This will be a living page, or at least that's my intention: I plan on expanding on this idea until I can clarify this thought in it's entirety. If you have any thoughts or ideas to contribute, please get in touch!
Comments
Post a Comment